on hitting one's peak too quickly....

Depending upon when one considers the Liberal leadership race to have begun, we are only part way through the race, given that the election was in late January and that it took some time for the 11 declared candidates to throw their hats into the ring. There have been two debates so far and we are past the deadline for signing up members. Most notable Liberals have already declared who they are supporting. Who then is winning and how do we know that? Iggy? Kennedy? Dion? Rae? Someone else the media is not talking about in this way yet???

With each of these candidates there is a potential problem that could emerge between now and convention, as some argue that none of them can will nationally or can beat Harper. Is this true and could it be a factor?

So, apart from one's ability to be elected, what factors will dictate who will rise in their popularity between now and the Leadership Convention? Also, how does one gauge who will be leading going into convention and will that candidate have sufficient support from the rest of the party to be able to continue to build support after the first ballot? Who will peak too early in this race and who will not even get off the ground?

The race now it seems is about many factors, including policy, visibility, showing momentum, setting oneself apart, stature as far as looking prime ministerial etc. Success on these fronts will depend largely upon the instincts of the potential leader and the efficacy of the organizations they have built to help them get there.

There are also factors that are more difficult to control, such as one's ability to avoid being taken out by a negative controversy (please continue to ignore this Joe Volpe), when one hits their peak and how much less one dislikes one candidate over another, In essence, between now and convention the race will be won by winning over the undecided party members who can vote at convention as well as having enough delegate candidates present themselves at 'super weekend', in spite of the enormous cost to individuals and the strict rules put forward by the party making it illegal for delegates fees to be subsidized by the candidates. We will see whether this rule is respected or not over time ...

There are still more than 4 months until convention and much time for several of the candidates to pick up their momentum or to fizzle. With that being said speculation over who is winning since the beginning of the race has largely been about spin and optics. If the smoke does not clear and the mirrors do not fade, those leading from the beginning of the race may have a shot. Otherwise, someone somewhat unexpected by some could emerge at the end of the day.

I urge the alleged frontrunners to keep "running" if you want to win because you have also been shielding those behind you from the "wind". Much could change between now and the end of November...